Semi-finals previews

Marist St. Pat's v Poneke

It will take a sterling effort from Poneke to overcome Marist St. Pat's on their home patch today. Marist St. Pat's have had a terrific season in 2008, playing through unbeaten since the second week in early April, winning the first round Swindale Shield title for the first time since 2000 and qualifying for today's playoff with a week to spare and in top spot.

Following a 20-10 loss to Old Boys-University in the first week of the year, the closest Marist St Pat's have since come to defeat was just last week when last year's Jubilee Cup champions Hutt Old Boys Marist held them to a 22-all draw, blemishing their hopes of a clean sweep in the round-robin. Despite almost dropping their last game, the Red Machine enter the knockout rounds with the best attacking record of all teams in the Jubilee Cup and easily the best defence averaged out over the Swindale Shield and Jubilee Cup rounds.

But the other reason why MSP are favoured today is home ground advantage. The teams may be separated by a trip of road, but playing on the other side of Evans Bay Parade is statistically in MSP's favour - having won each of their last 15 home matches going back to April last year.

However Poneke have now been semi-finalists five years out of the previous six and finalists three years out of the last four and they know how to win at this time of the season. Another finals appearance would cap a memorable end to their 125th Jubilee season. Injuries and disruptions made for a slow start to their 2008 that saw the red and blacks lose five of their first six matches, including a 28-6 defeat to MSP, but then recover to scrape into the Jubilee Cup round and fight their way into the top four.

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Petone v Northern United

If the weather holds, expect fireworks at the Petone Recreation Ground in today's semi-final between second placed qualifiers Petone and third placed Northern United. All eyes will be on the strike capabilities of both sets of backs, who could hold the key to victory today. The well-oiled Petone backs have run in some exciting tries over the past seven weeks of round robin play, while their Norths counterparts have had probably the most explosive back three in the competition.

Both attack well off set pieces and both are adept broken field runners and excellent finishers. Key among them are Norths wingers Daley Harper, outstanding in support, and Sinoti To'omaga, try scorer extraordinaire with 17 tries this season. Players to watch for Petone include Greg Walker, Sam O'Leary and the experienced Willie Moala. Expect an even battle in the forwards which could go either way, making for a hotly contested semi-final.

Both of these sides bring near-identical 2008 Jubilee Cup records to this semi-final. 2004 and 2006 champions Norths have scored 171 points (including 23 tries) and conceded 88 points, and 2002 and 2004 champions Petone have scored 172 points (21 tries) and conceded 68 points. Their head-to-head record is neck and neck as well, with Petone narrowly winning two of their previous three clashes with the other a draw, and Norths ahead on eight wins to Petone's six in their past 15 clashes going back to 2002. This will be the fourth knockout clash in five years between the teams, Norths beating Petone in two semi-finals (15-8 in 2004 and 56-17 in 2006) and Petone prevailing in the 2005 Jubilee Cup final (21-20) after winning that year's semi-final at home against Poneke in dramatic circumstances off a last-gasp tighthead scrum win.

HARDHAM CUP

Tawa v Wests Roosters

A glance at the Hardham Cup season records of both Tawa and the Wests Roosters suggests that Tawa should comfortably win their home semi-final over the Wests Roosters and progress into next week's final at Westpac Stadium.

Top qualifiers Tawa are unbeaten in the Hardham Cup season and comfortably earned a home semi-final with a week to spare, while the Roosters have scraped tooth and nail into the playoffs after an underwhelming 2008. Overall, Tawa have been streets ahead of any other side in this year's Hardham Cup, having scored 78 more and conceded 31 fewer points than their next best attacking and defensive sides.

But their supporters will know not to underestimate the plucky Roosters, who may have only five victories all year but they could have turned some of those narrow losses into wins if they had managed to convert just some of their attacking pressure situations into points. This has been a recurring theme for them in 2008, as evidenced right from their opening game on Gala Day against defending Jubilee Cup champions Hutt Old Boys Marist when they led 6-0 after 25 minutes and ended up losing 29-6. Also adding to their frustration on the field has been disruptions off it, with a midseason change in coach and some key injuries.

Two weeks ago, with their season and the spectre of relegation on the line, the Roosters broke free and walloped Rimutaka 56-5 and then last week they drew with defending champions Wainuiomata 11-all to deny Wainuiomata a home semi-final. Now this week they travel to Tawa as underdogs, and with nothing to lose and knowing their 2009 Swindale Shield spot is safe, could produce the major surprise of all today's semi-finals.

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Avalon v Wainuiomata

Semi-finals rugby returns to Fraser Park today for the first time in four years, home team Avalon getting up to finish second behind Tawa in the round-robin ahead of defending champions Wainuiomata who were held to a 11-all draw by the Wests Roosters in their final round-robin game. Wainuiomata's unexpected last round draw at home and Avalon's 17-10 win over the Marist St. Pat's B team saw these two teams level pegging on 21 points after the round-robin, but Avalon's 20-12 win when these two teams last met in round three gave Avalon the home advantage.

The last time Avalon played a home semi-final they lost 17-6 but that was to Poneke in the 2004 Jubilee Cup, who went on to lose 20-18 to Northern United in the final the following week. Avalon had also made the semi-finals of the Jubilee Cup the previous year and then finished sixth in both 2005 and 2006. But the loss and unavailability of several key players, including the dynamic Waldrom brothers Scott and Thomas to ever-increasing representative commitments, saw them slip to the Hardham Cup last year. A horror run of injuries curtailed their Swindale Shield earlier this season, so a semi-final win today would be good reward.

Wainuiomata will be attempting to reach their third consecutive final, after grabbing the headlines in 2006 when the then Senior 1 side cut a swathe through the Hardham Cup and made the final to earn Premier status in 2007. They then went on to upset Oriental-Rongotai in last year's final, winning the season finale 23-17.

Few supporters will be confidently picking a winner from this match, between two even, youthful teams. Avalon have won five of their round-robin games to Wainuiomata's four, but Wainuiomata have picked up more bonus points than their hosts today.