Crunch weekend for top eight hopefuls in round ten

Four into two won't go. That's the predicament facing Wainuiomata, Tawa, Old Boys-University and Upper Hutt when considering their second round prospects. With just two weeks of the 2010 Swindale Shield remaining, all four can still hope for a realistic shot of finishing the first round inside the top eight and earn a berth in the upcoming Jubilee Cup.

OBU's timely bonus point win over Upper Hutt last week and Tawa's and Wainuiomata's respective defeats to Marist St. Pat's and Oriental Rongotai without advancing their causes on the points table has created a 10-point chasm on the Swindale Shield ladder between sixth placed Petone on 30 and seventh placed Wainuiomata on 20. Behind Wainuiomata are Tawa (19), OBU (18) and Upper Hutt (13) who are all still knocking on the Jubilee Cup door heading into this week's penultimate round set of matches.

At the top, Northern United are at short odds to wrap up the title this week, with only Oriental-Rongotai, whom they meet in their top-of-the-table match, capable of stopping them or at least prolonging for another seven days what appears to be the inevitable. To carry the Swindale Shield into the last round, Ories will need to beat Norths in their tangle at the Polo Ground and also stop them from getting a bonus point.

MSP, Poneke, Hutt Old Boys Marist and Petone round out the top half of the competition and are all safely into the Jubilee Cup round with two rounds to spare.

The real action is further down the chart. The Norths versus Ories match-up aside, probably the key Swindale Shield game this week will be between Tawa and Upper at Lyndhurst Park with much riding on this result that could affect all four of the other Jubilee Cup aspirants.

For Tawa, victory in this match for the Mexted Motors Cup would practically seal one of the two top eight places still up for grabs, while for a desperate Upper Hutt a win would leave their supporters hanging on in hope for another week when they play cellar-dwellers Johnsonville at home in round eleven.

Picking a winner in this contest would be a tough ask with little separating them after nine rounds. Tawa are currently ahead on the table courtesy of three wins to the Upper Hutt's two and have scored 240 points and conceded 336 to Upper Hutt's 209 and 334. Both are coming off heavy defeats. Head to head the results of their last six clashes are three wins apiece, with Upper Hutt winning 31-18 in the Swindale Shield round last year and Tawa winning 22-12 in the Jubilee Cup.

Victory for Upper Hutt this weekend could also throw jitters into the Wainuiomata camp, who this week face top six side Petone for the Darren Larsen Cup at William Jones Park. In contrast, it could be a boost for OBU's chances, provided they can get past the eleventh placed Wests Roosters this week in their Omar Cup encounter at Ian Galloway Park.

A first win for Wainuiomata over Petone in four Premier clashes since they first met in 2007 would guarantee them a start in the Jubilee Cup for the first time an also end Upper Hutt's chances regardless whether they beat Tawa. In their three previous clashes going back to Wainuiomata's first season back up at Premier level, Petone have won 39-27 (2007), 11-3 (2008) and 39-15 (2009).

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If at the end of the first round two teams are locked in the eighth placed position it will come down to who beat whom. If three or more teams are tied up after eight rounds it will come down to points differential. Next week OBU and Wainuiomata clash at the Basin Reserve.

Meanwhile in two other round ten Swindale Shield matches this weekend, Johnsonville hosts Maris St. Pat's and Hutt Old Boys Marist hosts Poneke.

Johnsonville should be hard pressed to get past third placed MSP at Helston Park, who will be searching for their seventh win in a row, while it could be a cracker at the Hutt Recreation Ground between the fourth placed HOBM and fifth placed Poneke as they jostle for Jubilee Cup bragging rights and for the Roy John Trophy after the former Poneke and Hutt halfback and first five-eighth.

Statistically, HOBM and Poneke have had near-identical seasons so far. Both have won six from nine and are on 31 points and can only be separated by a points differential margin of two points (HOBM +73, Poneke +71).

Meanwhile, there's still much to play for over the final two rounds for several teams in the Senior One Harper Lock Shield, with leaders Norths holding a four-point lead and seven teams still vying to finish inside the top four and make the Hardham Cup round.

With Norths out in front on 39 points, just eight points currently separates second placed HOBM (35) and seventh placed OBU (27). In this week's games, six of the leading seven teams still in contention are involved in matches against each other, leading to the probability that the race for the top four will go right down to the wire next weekend.

This week, leaders Norths play sixth placed Ories at the Polo Ground at 1.15pm, second placed HOBM meet fifth placed Poneke at the Hutt Recreation Ground at 1.15pm and third placed Avalon encounter seventh placed OBU on their Old Timers' Day at Fraser Park at 3pm.

In other matches, fourth placed MSP might reasonably hope to consolidate their top four spot when they play last placed Paremata-Plimmerton at Ngatitoa Domain at 3pm, eighth placed Tawa host eleventh ranked Rimutaka at Lyndhurst Park at 1.15pm and ninth and tenth placed Petone and Stokes Valley do battle at Delaney Park at 3pm.

Northern United will take out the Senior 2 National Mutual Cup with a round to spare if they beat eighth placed Wellington at Hataitai Park at 3pm. With a seven-point lead at the top of the table to joint second placed Poneke and Avalon, Norths can't be headed if they win this week.

Poneke and Avalon will add spice to the minor placings when they clash at Fraser Park at 1.15pm, while fourth placed Upper Hutt will stay on course for a high finish if they can beat tenth place HOBM at the Hutt Recreation Ground at 1.15pm.

Fifth placed Wainuiomata will also consolidate their spot well within the top half of the field if they can overcome last placed Petone at William Jones Park at 1.15pm, as will sixth placed MSP against eleventh ranked Paramata-Plimmerton at Ngatitoa Domain at 1.15pm. In the remaining round ten Senior 2 fixture, seventh placed the Wests Roosters host ninth placed OBU at Ian Galloway Park at 1.15pm.

In other grades, it's the final weekend of matches in the JC Bowl U85kg Restricted grade first round, with the MSP Blues and Poneke Dogs of War both locked in the lead on 24 points apiece.

This week's matches see MSP play the fourth placed Johnsonville Terrorhawks and the Dogs meet the fifth placed Onslow Bunnies. If Poneke and MSP finish equal on points MSP will take the title based on their 12-5 win over Poneke earlier in the round.

It's the penultimate weekend of the first round U21 grade Paris Memorial Trophy this weekend, that sees four teams currently separated at the top by seven points.

In matches this week, leaders Norths (on 22 points) meet second placed Petone (19), third placed MSP (17) play sixth placed HOBM (11), fourth placed Upper Hutt (15) play fifth placed Ories (12) and seventh and eighth placed OBU (4) and Poneke (2).

Women's rugby takes a week off, due to the Black Ferns regional trials involving a number of Wellington players.

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