Semi-finals assured for frontrunners if they win this weekend

Leading trio Poneke, Northern United and Hutt Old Boys Marist will all be assured of places in the Jubilee Cup semi-finals with a round to spare if they win this week, but the fates of the other four remaining playoff contenders are wide open heading into the sixth and penultimate round set of matches.

Leaders Poneke will also earn a home semi-final at Kilbirnie Park with a week in hand if they win with a bonus point against strugglers Old Boys-University and Marist St. Pat's beats Hutt Old Boys Marist at the Hutt Recreation Ground.

Poneke's fourth win of the round put them out in front on 18 points, one point clear of HOBM and Norths on 17, who will also cement their top four places with victory this week over MSP and Upper Hutt respectively.

This would leave up to three teams left next week chasing one remaining spot available, and it is amongst these contenders where much interest lies in round six.

This week's Jubilee Cup spotlight falls on two games of huge bearing in the Hutt Valley this weekend - the HOBM - MSP clash and the Petone - Ories clash down the road at the Petone Recreation Ground.

In a super-tight competition, MSP were the big losers from last week's fifth round, missing out to their arch rivals Norths and slipping from first to fourth. The two-time defending champions will be desperate to repeat their 22-20 Swindale Shield round 11 and Father Cleary Shield win over HOBM and topple them again in their clash, their first match outside of their Evans Bay precinct for six weeks.

If they don't then either Petone or Ories will pounce, while further back, Upper Hutt will also spy an opening if they can get past Norths this week.

For the second week in a row for Petone their clash against Ories is a virtual knockout encounter for both teams, with Ories simply needing to win or they're gone from semi-final contention and Petone mathematically still alive if they don't win although then needing MSP to lose and then for Ories to lose in the last round.

Hopes are high for both clubs, Petone in their 125th anniversary season and Ories out to shrug off an eight-year Jubilee Cup playoff drought of not making it that far including the disappointment of last season when they were tracking for the semis but faded at the end. Ories beat Petone at Petone 29-19 when they met in the last round of the Swindale Shield.

Both teams have newly selected Vodafone Wellington Lions players in their ranks, with Petone first five-eighth Hayden Cripps and Ories outside back Julian Savea both named in the Lions squad on Tuesday. Cripps, Savea and all the Lions play a pre-season match against Canterbury in Christchurch on Friday and are all available for club rugby on Saturday. However they won't be available for next week's final round or the semi-finals.

Norths, with seven players named in the 2010 Lions squad, will be favoured to overcome Upper Hutt and set themselves up for a tilt at a home semi-final in the last round against OBU. Upper Hutt have shown in recent weeks that they'll be a much tougher opponent than they were back in round two of the Swindale Shield when Norths won 82-16 but Norths should have too many guns for them.
Fullback Buxton Popoalii scored two tries that day and has scored 20 in total this season. But he hasn't crossed for a month so look out for more from him in this game.

For seventh placed Upper Hutt, their path to the semi-finals remains open in theory but it would be a remarkable occurrence as they are now relying on almost all of their stars to align. They'll need to win their last two games with bonus points and hope for MSP to lose both their final two games for Petone and Ories to lose at least one of their two.

The final Jubilee Cup this round sees OBU, the only side now officially out of the running, travel to Kilbirnie Park to tackle Poneke who, far from resting on their laurels, will be going all out to get the points and seal their playoff spot before they lose four of their players to the Lions.While in line this week to clinch a home semi-final berth, Poneke could also miss out on the top four altogether if they lose their final two games and Petone wins theirs. In the first instance if two teams are tied on the same points after next week then the team that progresses is the one who won their round-robin clash. Poneke's only loss to date has been against Petone back in round one so it could yet get interesting.

In a crunch weekend for the Hardham Cup semi-final contenders, all four games have a bearing on the composition of the top four after next week's final round.
The Wests Roosters are well out in front and are already guaranteed a home semi-final with two rounds to spare, leaving the remaining seven teams chasing the other three spots available for the playoffs.

Heading into this week's sixth round, all seven of these teams are still in the hunt for the playoffs, but only three can decide their own destiny and make the top four on their own steam and not by relying on others to stumble.

Two of these three teams are second placed Wainuiomata and fourth placed Northern United B, who meet at William Jones Park at 3pm. A win for Wainuiomata would see them join the Roosters in the semi-finals with a week to spare and quite possibly grab the second home playoff berth at the same time if Tawa loses their match. A win for Norths B over Wainuiomata would not only leave Wainuiomata's hopes on ice for another week but would keep them on track for the top four heading into the last round.

Norths B and Wainuiomata will both be supporting the Wests Roosters against Tawa in their clash at Ian Galloway Park at 3pm. Victory for Tawa over the Roosters would probably be enough to cement their top four place heading into next week, but a loss could place all sorts of pressure on them in the last round.

As well as Norths B, Tawa also have Johnsonville, the two B teams from MSP and HOBM and even conceivably Avalon chasing them and all searching for a fairytale finish to their year.

The third 3pm match of the sixth round is at Helston Park between Johnsonville and Avalon and is also hugely significant for both teams - being a battle for Premier survival as well as to make the playoffs for Johnsonville. For the home team the equation is simple: beat Avalon and secure their spot ahead of them in next year's Swindale Shield and keep themselves in the hunt for the semi-finals. Lose and the pressure is right on them next week.

Avalon need to beat Johnsonville to have any hope of promotion in 2011 and they also need two bonus points wins and other results to go their way to reach the playoffs.

HOBM B hosts MSP B at the Hutt Recreation Ground in another knockout fixture. Both teams are just three points adrift of fourth placed Norths B at present and both will keep their semi-finals chances alive if they win. Equally, the loser of this clash will out the back door and left cheering on their Jubilee Cup clubmates from next week.

In other grades, Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup leaders Oriental-Rongotai (on 19 points) could get a jump on the field after this weekend if they beat fifth placed Petone at the Petone Recreation Ground, while the chasing pack will remain bunched together if other games go to form.

In other Senior 1 games, second equal OBU and Poneke (both on 17 points) meet at Kilbirnie Park in the clash of the round. The winner of this match will stay in touch with Ories or overtake them should Ories lose, while the loser could get leapfrogged by fourth placed Stokes Valley (14) and sixth placed Paremata-Plimmerton (13) who play bottom two teams Norths and Avalon respectively.

The Senior 2 HD Morgan Memorial Trophy was found in a cupboard at an undisclosed location this week, and in this week's round six action leaders and unbeaten MSP (23 points) meet the challenge of second equal Upper Hutt (18) in the match of the round. Victory for MSP would steer them clear at the top of the table, but a win for Upper Hutt over MSP and bonus point victories for joint second placed Wellington (18) and HOBM (18) over strugglers Paremata-Plimmerton and the Wests Roosters respectively could see a four-way tie at the top with three rounds to play after this one.

There's also a big encounter in the Senior 3 Johnsonville Centennium Cup between first round JDR Cup winners and second second placed Johnsonville and third placed MSP. Leaders Petone play fifth placed Avalon.

It's the semi-finals of the Premier Women's second round Victoria Tavern Trophy. Top qualifier and unbeaten Norths play fourth placed Wainuiomata at Porirua Park at 11.30am and second placed and unbeaten Eketahuna hosts third placed qualifier Stokes Valley.

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