Top of the table clashes in Jubilee and Hardham Cups this weekend

The first semi-finalists in both the Jubilee and Hardham Cup competitions for 2011 are highly likely to be found this weekend from the winners of the two top of the table matches at the Polo Ground and the Hawkins Basin Reserve.

In a colossal clash at Miramar, joint Jubilee Cup leaders and unbeaten teams Oriental-Rongotai and Poneke square off in a match that will seemingly find the first Jubilee semi-finalist for the playoffs three weeks later on 30 July.

It wouldn't become clear until at least another week, but the winner of this match will probably also have enough points in the bank to earn a home semi-final and go on and press for the top qualifier's berth and the Andy Leslie trophy that Poneke has won for each of the last two years.

In the clash between the two leading side's after the first month of the Hardham Cup, frontrunners Old Boys-University host Poneke B. The students will be good for the first semi-final spot should they defeat the surprise package Poneke team that earned its third victory over Rimutaka in round four. A bonus point win for OBU would also almost certainly give them a home semi-final berth with a fortnight still to play after this weekend's round.

With the jostling for position at the head of both points tables and at least one team set to lose its unbeaten record, it's down the points table where the action promises to be tense and tight in the fifth round. With tightly bunched fields and several teams treading water across both competitions, this week's club rugby promises to be hard fought right across the board.

In the Jubilee Cup, two other important clashes that could well likely decide the semi-finals and the order of finishing see Hutt Old Boys Marist host Marist St. Pat's at the Hutt Recreation Ground and Wainuiomata do battle with Northern United at William Jones Park.

The clash between HOBM and MSP shapes as a crucial one for both teams. Each have two wins from four and are sitting right on the cut off mark in fourth and fifth. Victory for the winner of this match would put them in a much stronger position than the other heading into the final fortnight, probably meaning that they would need just one more win to qualify. The loser would need to win at least one of their last two and also likely be left relying on the other to trip up in the remaining fortnight.

Over the past five years in both the Jubilee and Hardham Cups, the average number of wins needed to reach the semi-finals is four, while a bare minimum of three wins from seven matches has been required for teams to reach the playoffs.

This means that unless MSP and HOBM draw their match, sixth placed Wainuiomata need to beat Norths at home this weekend or their chances are realistically gone. Officially, they could lose but pick up a couple of losing bonus points and then win their last two matches with bonus points and still qualify - but that is more what the calculator says than what is going to happen. Against Norths, whom they lost to 64-12 in the first round, they face a side not as in such menacing form as they were in the first round, but equally motivated for victory. With frontunners Ories and Poneke squaring off in one clash, Norths could leapfrog the loser of that match into second if they beat Wainuiomata with a bonus point.

Another factor this weekend, affecting Norths as much as anyone, will be the probable absence of all the players who are playing Canterbury in an ITM Cup pre-season match at the Petone Recreation Ground this Friday, changing the dynamics of several clubs.

It's also an unlikely long shot, but mathematically at least, seventh placed Petone could win their last three matches with bonus points and rely on both HOBM and MSP - whom they play in the final two rounds - above them falling away and then clinch fourth place.

For this to happen, the Villagers need maximum points over Upper Hutt at Maidstone Park this round first and foremost.

While OBU should be safely through to the Hardham Cup playoffs with a home win over Poneke B, the same cannot be said for the chasing pack that includes Avalon, Tawa, the Wests Roosters and Premier hopefuls Rimutaka. None of these four teams are safe from the dreaded relegation zone and are effectively fighting it out over the remainder of the competition for three spots for next year's Swindale Shield.

As well as each other, they also have the three B teams to contend with - Poneke, Norths and HOBM. As it stands after a month, Poneke B and Norths B occupy two of the semi-final spots, while HOBM B beat Avalon last week and could be about to regain some of their first round form.

It all adds up to three weeks of nervousness for all and subsequent pain for at least one of these current Premier teams plus Rimutaka.

In this week's fifth round set of Hardham Cup matches, Tawa and Rimutaka clash at Maoribank Park where the loser could be in trouble if Wests and Avalon win their matches. At the Hutt Recreation Ground, the Wests Roosters can move from sixth to as high as third if they beat HOBM B with a bonus point. At Fraser Park, Avalon can move from fourth to as high as second if they beat Norths B with a bonus point.

Elsewhere, it's the semi-finals of the Victoria Tavern Trophy women's grade this weekend. The action sees top qualifier Eketahuna hosts fourth placed challenger Stokes Valley and second placed Northern United and third placed Wainuiomata square off at Porirua Park.

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