Colossal last round for Jubilee and Hardham Cup playoff contenders

The Jubilee and Hardham Finals are still a fortnight away, but for several contenders across the top two grades of Wellington club rugby their defining matches of the 2011 season are this weekend.

With one spot up for grabs in the Jubilee Cup and three of the four places in the Hardham Cup as well as promotion-relegation still to be decided, this weekend's seventh and final regular season round of rugby in the top two grades promises to be colossal.

Sitting at the top of the Jubilee Cup standings and with home semi-finals already booked are Orienatal-Rongotai and Poneke. The former needs to beat what will be a passionate Wainuiomata at home at the Polo Ground to earn top spot and win the coveted Andy Leslie Trophy, while the latter needs Ories to lose and for themselves to overcome Northern United at home to finish first for the third consecutive year - and to most likely avoid Norths again in the semi-final at the same venue the following week.

Third placed Norths, who are likely to welcome back Wallaby slayer and goal kicking fullback James So'oialo, have a six-point buffer to fourth placed Hutt Old Boys Marist heading into the last round and are also safely through to the playoff round.

But three of the four teams chasing the last spot - HOBM, Petone, MSP and Wainuiomata - will be hitting the beach as early as next Saturday if they don't win, and in the case of the latter three, rely on others losing.
Of these four, HOBM's destiny is in their own hands: overcome winless Upper Hutt at Maidstone Park in the last round and they will clinch the remaining semi-final spot.

However should HOBM lose to Upper Hutt, and Petone beat MSP in their last round clash at Evans Bay Park, Petone will grab fourth place ahead of the Eagles.

Sixth placed MSP's slim chances rest on them beating Petone and HOBM losing to Upper Hutt and HOBM not securing any bonus points, while seventh placed Wainuiomata could yet grab a historic playoff berth but they would need to defeat frontrunners Ories at the Polo Ground, preferably with a bonus point, and rely on Upper Hutt beating HOBM as well as MSP beating or drawing with Petone.

In the Hardham Cup, the semi-finals race and the promotion-relegation battle are both far from decided. In this competition all that's certain is that Old Boys-University will host a home semi-final at the Hawkins Basin Reserve.

Heading into the final weekend of round-robin games, just three points separate the six chasing teams still in contention to reach the semi-finals, while Wests, Tawa and Avalon all face the dark door of relegation if they lose.

It could be 2006 all over again. In an extraordinary Hardham Cup final round five years ago, four teams were fighting it out simultaneously in semi-final and promotion-relegation battles right up to the fulltime whistles that signalled the end of the regular season.

Johnsonville were the unlucky side to go down that year, and there's a real chance that either Wests, Tawa of Avalon could join them down in the Senior 1 ranks in 2012 if Rimutaka can win their last match.

It's P-Day at Rimutaka this Saturday. They will qualify for next year's Swindale Shield at the expense of the above trio if they beat HOBM B at home at Maoribank Park in the last round and Avalon lose to leaders OBU away at the Hawkins Basin Reserve.

With second placed Wests and third placed Tawa also meeting in the last round, at Ian Galloway Park, Rimutaka are still likely to earn promotion if Avalon lose and they lose too and if they win and Avalon win too, as Wests and Tawa also meet in the last round.

If Avalon lose to Rimutaka, then they will still need to rely earning at least one bonus point. Just a point back from Tawa, if they and Tawa finished equal on points then Avalon would stay up by virtue of their 32-3 win over Tawa back in week one.

In the struggle to secure the second home semi-final berth, the Roosters will earn this if they beat Tawa.

Fifth placed Poneke B and sixth placed Norths B could become the first ‘B' sides since MSP B in 2002 to qualify for the semi-finals of the Hardham Cup if they win when they play each other in the early game at Kilbirnie Park.

Poneke will make the last four - and play a part in knocking another club out of next year's Swindale Sheild - if they beat Norths B with a bonus point. This is because they beat both Avalon (13-10) and Rimutaka (25-19) in the round-robin and if they finish equal with one or both of these teams they will progress.

Norths B's chances are slimmer. They need to beat Poneke B and rely on both Avalon losing to OBU and Rimutaka losing to HOBM B, as they lost to both Avalon and Rimutaka in the earlier rounds.

With the business end of the season fast approaching, the competition in the lower grades is intense. In the Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup, most of the 10-team field is still in with a mathematical chance at least of reaching the semi-finals with three rounds to go - but this weekend's action could see more contenders drop off the pace.

Petone are out in front with six consecutive wins and are officially just one competition point away from booking their semi-finals spot with two rounds to spare after this. If they beat fourth placed Marist St. Pat's at Evans Bay Park with a bonus point this weekend they will also officially qualify for a home semi-final with two weeks in the bag.

Second placed OBU, will also officially qualify for the semi-finals with two rounds still to play if beat seventh placed Wainuiomata at Te Whaea with a bonus point and fifth placed Paremata-Pimmerton lose to eighth placed Stokes Valley.

In other round seven Ed Chaney Cup matches third placed Johnsonville can keep themselves in the box seat for a semi-final spot if they beat sixth placed Tawa at Helston Park, and strugglers Ories and Avalon square off at the Polo Ground.

It's a similar story at the top of the Senior 2 HD Morgan Memorial competition, where Hutt Old Boys Marist are out in front with six wins from six. With an 11-point buffer to fourth placed OBU, they too will qualify for the Senior 2 semi-finals with two weeks to spare if they beat fifth placed Upper Hutt up at Maidstone Park this weekend.

The second placed Wellington Axemen will be favoured to beat last placed Johnsonville at home at Hataitai Park and maintain their strong position on the table.

With a nine-point gap between Wellington and the rest of the Senior 2 field, wins for the chasing pack will thus be vital this weekend. Third placed Norths and sixth placed Poneke square off in an early game at Kilbirnie Park and fourth placed OBU host seventh placed Poneke. Down the field, the eighth placed Wests Roosters host ninth placed MSP in the early game at Ian Galloway Park.