Significant penultimate round in store for Wellington club rugby

Above: Try time in last week's Upper Hutt - Wests match. Every point will be crucial in this week's 10^th round of the Swindale Shield

The 2013 Swindale Shield could be decided this Saturday at the Hutt Recreation Ground when visitors Tawa take on defending first round champions Hutt Old Boys Marist in their penultimate round top of the table clash. If Tawa win with a bonus point they will claim the Swindale Shield outright with next week's final set of matches to spare. However, should HOBM topple Tawa then it's likely the title race will come down to a three-way battle in round 11 between this pair and third placed Ories.

The competition further down the table to finish inside the top eight and make the Jubilee Cup round is intense. The second round fates of several teams, including some of the traditional powerhouse Jubilee Cup clubs, are still very much up in the air.

It is worth noting that in all three competitions if two or more teams finish on the same amount of points, the tie-breaker is decided in the first instance on who beat who in the round-robin, followed by points differential. In last year's Swindale Shield, Petone finished eighth ahead of OBU on superior points differential after both teams finished equal on points and they had fought out an 18-18 draw when they had me earlier in the round. This compounded the fact that OBU had lost to Upper Hutt at the death when fullback Jason Woodward kicked a penalty at Maidstone Park with time up.

Four clubs are holding their Old Timers' Day this Saturday. These are Hutt Old Boys Marist, Old Boys University, Avalon and Paremata-Plimmerton.

There are four interclub trophies on the line in the Swindale Shield in round 10. These are:

• The Alby Makeham Shield between Upper Hutt (holders) and Poneke. Alby Makeham was Poneke's halfback between 1951-59 and a Wellington representative between 1954-59. He played for Upper Hutt between1960-62. After his playing days he mentored young Poneke halfbacks, including future All Black, Ofisa Tonu'u, and when he died both clubs set up a trophy in his honour.

• The Alf Keating Memorial Trophy between Northern United (holders) and Wainuiomata, after the man who played for both clubs. Norths are the holders having won this match in 2011. Last year they drew 15-15.

• The Keith Mettrick Memorial Cup between the Wests Roosters and Oriental-Rongotai (holders) after the former Wellington representative hooker. Keith Mettrick played and coached at Ories continuously between 1957 and 1986,? fought many battles with Athletic teams over the years (the forerunner to Wests) and Ories' gym is named in his honour.

• The second annual Marc Verhoeven Memorial Trophy between OBU and Petone (joint holders), after Marc ‘Alby' Verhoeven who died in August 2011. He was a member of the 1978 Wanganui Collegiate first XV led by future All Blacks RWC winning halfback David Kirk and played for Petone and OBU in the 1980s and 1990s and for Wellington between 1986-91.

A closer look at each of the Swindale Shield team's chances over the final fortnight is detailed below:

Tawa

Currently 1st on 38 points

Still to play: Hutt Old Boys Marist (away) and then Marist St Pat's (home)

Highest possible finish: Winners

Lowest possible finish: Fourth

With a five point buffer to second placed HOBM, Tawa are hoping to beat their nearest rivals this Saturday with a four-try bonus point and thus guarantee themselves their? maiden Swindale Shield title with a week to spare. If they beat HOBM without a bonus point then they will also win the Shield, but could still have to share it with Ories, should Ories finish with two bonus point wins.

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Hutt Old Boys Marist

Currently 2^nd on 33 points

Still to play: Tawa (at home) and then Upper Hutt (away)

Highest possible finish: Winners

Lowest possible finish: Sixth

Hutt Old Boys Marist must beat Tawa at home this Saturday in what is being billed as a ‘virtual final' ?-? and nothing else matters. Win and they'll carry the title race into the final week; lose and their title defence will be over and they'll probably finish third behind Tawa and Ories.

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Oriental Rongotai

Currently third on 32 points

Still to play: The Wests Roosters (away) and then Petone (at home)

Highest possible finish: Winners

Lowest possible finish: Seventh

If Ories win this week against the Wests Roosters, as expected, and HOBM beats Tawa then there'll be a three-way battle next week for title honours. However if Tawa prevails over HOBM without a bonus point then the best Ories can hope for is to be joint champions after the fulltime whistle is sounded for the final round. With the manner that they beat Norths last weekend and with several of their leading players still to come back, Ories are a big threat for the Jubilee Cup regardless of how the first round unfolds. Plus they have their 125^th anniversary celebrations just around the corner.

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Petone:

Currently fourth on 30 points

Still to play: Old Boys University (away) and then Ories (away)

Highest possible finish: Winners

Lowest possible finish: Eighth

After last year's Swindale Shield when they qualified for the Jubilee Cup by virtue of a greater points differential over OBU, Petone can be relieved that they have already done enough to qualify inside the top eight. Worst case scenario is losing their last two matches and being swallowed up by the pack and finishing eighth. But best case is that - mathematically at least - they could still finish as first round champions if they win their last two matches and the sea parts for them. Two very tough away matches to come though.

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Old Boys University

Currently fifth on 25 points (superior points differential than Poneke)

Still to play: Petone (home) and then Poneke (home)

Highest possible finish: Second

Lowest possible finish: 10^th equal

After finishing ninth two years in a row, surely OBU can make the Jubilee Cup from here? Two home matches to come, against Petone on a special Old Timers' Day at Wellington College and then Poneke, also at home. The Billy Goats should make the top eight from here; bonus points should suffice.? But two losses could see them swallowed up by Poneke, MSP, Wainuiomata and Norths.

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Poneke:

Currently sixth on 25 points (inferior points differential than OBU)

Still to play: Upper Hutt (away) and then OBU (away)

Highest possible finish: Second

Lowest possible finish: 10^th equal

After missing out last year, the motivation is there for Poneke to finish strongly and make the Jubilee Cup. One of several mid-table teams who could yet miss out, a win or even a couple of bonus points? this Saturday against Upper Hutt should be enough - or they could face a showdown with OBU and others around them in the last round.

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Wainuiomata

Currently seventh on 23 points (beat MSP earlier in the round)

Still to play: Norths (away) and Wests Roosters (home)

Highest possible finish: Second equal

Lowest possible finish: 11^th equal

Wainuiomata's match this Saturday with Norths is very important for both sides. Whoever wins should be safe from the Hardham Cup drop with next week to spare. However should they lose to Norths, Wainuiomata will likely head home to host the Wests Roosters in the last round in a must-win match. Their 31-24 win over MSP in round seven could prove crucial, as could their defeats to both Poneke and OBU should it come down to a tie-breaker.

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Marist St Pat's

Currently eighth on 23 points (lost to Wainuiomata earlier in the round)

Still to play: Rimutaka (at home) and then Tawa (away)

Highest possible finish: Second equal

Lowest possible finish: 11^th equal

The easiest team still to play, followed by the toughest. MSP will be favoured to beat Rimutaka at home this Saturday with a bonus point and move to 28 points - which should be enough for them to make the Jubilee Cup round. Their travelling supporters will then have a nervous 80 minutes next Saturday against Tawa who themselves could be playing to win the title. If it came down to the who beat who tie-breaker, earlier losses to OBU and Wainuiomata were offset by victory over Norths four weeks ago.

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Northern United

Currently ninth on 22 points

Still to play: Wainuiomata (at home) and Rimutaka (away)

Highest possible finish: Second equal

Lowest possible finish: 11th equal

They have the closest thing to a guaranteed five points in the last round against Rimutaka, which would take them to 27 points. But will this be enough for Norths to make the top eight? Probably not. Norths realistically need to at least pick up a bonus point or two against Wainuiomata or the 2003, 2006, 2007, 2010 and 2011 Swindale Shield champions could be playing in the Hardham Cup. For the first time since 1996.

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Upper Hutt

Currently 11^th on 13 points

Still to play: Poneke (at home) and then Hutt Old Boys Marist (at home)

Highest possible finish: Eighth

Lowest possible finish: 11^th

Unlikely, but Upper Hutt can still make the Jubilee Cup round by beating Poneke and HOBM at Maidstone Park in their last two games and then hoping that MSP lose their last two matches and that the loser of this Saturday's Norths and Wainuiomata also loses in the last round. Realistically they're Hardham Cup bound. A high injury toll and a lack of size against a couple of the big guns cost them earlier in the season, but they will be super-competitive in the Hardham Cup. ?

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The Wests Roosters

Currently 11^th on 13 points

Still to play: Ories (home) and then Wainuiomata (away)

Highest possible finish: Ninth

Lowest possible finish: 11^th

The Wests Roosters have a tough finish to what's been a rocky first round, hosting title contenders Ories this week at Ian Galloway Park and then Wainuiomata at William Jones Park. Realistically, the best they can do is cause an upset and leapfrog Upper Hutt into 10^th.

Rimutaka

Currently last on 0 points

Still to play: Marist St Pat's (away) and then Northern United (home)

Highest possible finish: Last

Lowest possible finish: Last

Unfortunately the men from Maoribank Park officially consigned themselves to the wooden spoon a fortnight ago when they lost by 40 points to the Wests Roosters. Having already conceded over 700 points (a known Swindale Shield points against record), they are now playing just to try and establish some confidence in the hope they will compete in the Hardham Cup against easier opposition. They also only need three points in their last two games to better the 34 they scored in last year's Swindale Shield.

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Senior 1 and Senior 2 grades

The top four finishing teams from the current Senior 1? Harper Lock Shield qualify for the Hardham Cup for the second half of the season, joining the bottom four from the Swindale Shield.

With two rounds to play, 1930 Senior 1 champions the Wellington Axemen (on 40 points) can win the title regardless of what goes on around them by finishing with two bonus point wins.

Johnsonville (39) are right behind and waiting to pounce, while mathematically at least, Avalon (34), OBU (34) and Petone (30, as joint winners) are all still in the race for title honours.

Clouding the issue is the fact that, as happened last year, even if OBU's second fifteen finish fourth or higher here and thus qualify for the Hardham Cup, there is no guarantee of promotion as their first XV must also make the top eight of the Swindale Shield. One team per club per competition is the rule, so if that were to happen OBU would have to stay down.

At the top of the table the Wellington Axemen and Avalon play a key match at Old Timers' Day at Fraser Park at 3.00 pm.

Johnsonville meets eighth placed MSP at Kilbirnie Park at 1.15 pm. ?Johnsonville also hold tie-breakers on the who beat who scenario over Wellington, Avalon and Petone. Johnsonville's opening week 5-3 win over the Axemen could yet prove crucial.

In another key match this weekend, OBU and Petone square off at the Petone Recreation Ground at 1.15 pm.

The Senior 2 National Mutual Cup is more straightforward.

The top two finishing teams from this grade earn promotion to the Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup for the second half of the season. Leaders Hutt Old Boys Marist (on 43 points) are already through and are likely to be joined by Ories (40) who just need a bonus point from their last two matches to join them since they've beaten Avalon (32) and OBU this season.

HOBM would win the title this Saturday with a week to spare if they beat Avalon at Fraser Park at 1.00 pm and Ories lose to fifth placed Norths (30) at Porirua Park.

In other matches, fourth placed OBU (31) travel to play sixth placed Petone (25) at the Petone Rec at 1.15 pm, seventh placed Johnsonville (23) meet 11^th placed MSP (3) on Kilbirnie Park, eighth placed Wainuiomata (19) and ninth placed Wests (12) meet at Ian Galloway Park at 1.15 pm and 10^th placed Stokes Valley (10) entertains bottom ranked Poneke (2) at Delaney Park at 3.00 pm.

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