Jubilee and Hardham Cups Round Two preview: momentum a big factor in early weeks

Above: Try time for Northern United second five-eighth Siaosi Anamani last week against OBU B in the Hardham Cup.

A key adage in the early rounds of the Jubilee Cup has always been that teams must win their early games if they want to be championship contenders at the business end of the season.

The Jubilee Cup is all about momentum; for teams that win their early round-robin games, it's just a short sprint to the playoffs at the end of July.

The statistics back this up - and modern Jubilee Cup history overwhelmingly favours teams that start well in the second round.

In each of the past 15 Jubilee Cups between 1998-2012 the eventual champion (or in 2008 both co-champions) won their first round match.

This means that for the five teams that didn’t win in last week’s opening set of matches -? losers Marist St. Pat’s, Petone and Wainuiomata, and the two teams that drew, Old Boys University and Poneke, - they will need to break a decade and a half pattern to go on and be crowned champions.

The last time a team failed to win its first round match and went on to win the Jubilee Cup was in 1997 when MSP lost its opener to Harlequins (OBU) 18-30. Remarkably, MSP then lost to Avalon 22-30 in round two, before winning five in a row to qualify third, beating Wests in the semi-final and then winning the final.

With the stakes high for some clubs just a week into the second round, this weekend's club rugby in Wellington could be unmissable.

Of the five unsuccessful teams from last week three play opening Jubilee Cup round winners and two more, MSP and OBU, meet each other in another match with significant implications based on the above statistics.

The OBU-MSP game at Nairnville Park pits two teams with similar first round Swindale Shield records. Both defending Jubilee Cup champions MSP and OBU won five, drew one and lost five in the first round and finished a point apart from each other. OBU won their previous match in the opening week of the season, 21-15.

This week’s other three matches see first round winners Hutt Old Boys Marist hosting losers Wainuiomata at the Hutt Rec, losers Petone hosting winners Tawa at the Petone Rec and Poneke, who drew, entertaining winners Ories at Kilbirnie Park.

At Petone, the home side will be hoping to capitalise on their strong showing throughout most of their match last week against Ories. After being behind by two tries early against Ories, Petone came storming back into their match and only desperate defence kept them out. They host Tawa who were made to work hard in beating Wainuiomata 28-20 at home, a lot less comfortable than their 44-17 win over Petone at home in mid-April.

Victory for HOBM over Wainuiomata would put them in a strong position to push on and make the semi-finals after they won the Swindale Shield last year but faded in the second round. The Eagles played with heart in beating MSP 34-28 in their opener last week, and will have to be on their game again to beat Wainuiomata who are playing their second consecutive match away from home to start the second round. HOBM beat Wainuiomata 38-31 when they met previously the first week of the season.

This week’s all-eastern suburbs derby pits Poneke against Ories in another key match. After beating a fired up Petone last week, Ories have now won their last four matches in a row, last tasting defeat to Tawa in round eight of the Swindale Shield. Ories have won 13 and drawn two of their last 15 matches played in their neighbourhood at home at the Polo Ground and at Evans Bay and Kilbirnie Parks.

Poneke dug deep to come back and draw 17-17 with OBU last week, so their supporters will be after more of their fighting spirit to surface this week. Ories beat Poneke 32-24 in their Swindale Shield match at the Polo Ground.

Hardham Cup, Women’s and lower grades

In the Hardham Cup, if last weekend's opening barrage is anything to go by, all eight teams will be going in all guns blazing in week two.

This weekend shapes as a crucial one for Rimutaka if they want to retain their Premier status in 2013.

Rimutaka missed out on any competition points in their 9-38 loss to the Wellington Axemen last week. At the least they’re after bonus points from their round two clash against neighbours Upper Hutt at Maidstone Park at 3.00 pm.

Similarly, Premier hopefuls Avalon and the Wellington Axemen will be hoping to at least earn bonus point from their matches against current Premier sides Northern United and the Wests Roosters. If they can, and Rimutaka gain nothing then they will both gain a clean jump on Rimutaka in the promotion/relegation race.

Avalon, who missed out 17-21 to Johnsonville at Helston Park last weekend,? host first round winners Norths at Fraser Park at 3.00 pm and the Wests Roosters, who lost 25-29 to Upper Hutt at Maidstone Park in their second round opener, host Wellington at Ian Galloway Park at 3.00 pm. ?

In the early game, moved to the Polo Ground at 1.00 pm, Johnsonville can gain an early advantage on their Senior 1 rivals if they defeat OBU B. They’ll feel that they need to though, as their last two matches are against Upper Hutt and Norths.

In the Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup, surprise first round losers Petone will want to get their account going in the second round when they host Tawa in the 1.15 pm game at the Petone Rec.Promoted team Ories, who beat Petone 29-20 in their second round opener, play Poneke in a first round derby match at 1.15 pm, which is the curtain-raiser to the Jubilee Cup contest on Kilbirnie Park. Poneke accounted for Upper Hutt 27-22 in their first match.

HOBM, promoted to this grade alongside Ories, host first round winners Wainuiomata in the 1.15 pm match on the Hutt Rec, first round winners Paremata-Plimmerton play MSP at Ngatitoa Domain at 3.00 pm and Upper Hutt and Norths are both seeking their first wins when they meet at Maidstone Park at 1.15 pm.

In the clash of the two winners from last week’s first round in the Senior 2 HD Morgan Memorial Cup, Avalon and Norths meet in the 1.15 pm game at Fraser Park.

Stokes Valley, who beat MSP first-up on their Old Timers’ Day, can make it two wins from two if they beat struggling Poneke at Kilbirnie Park at 1.15 pm.

First round winners play MSP at Ian Galloway Park at 1.15 pm, first round winners OBU and losers Johnsonville clash at Prince of Wales Park at 3.00 pm and Petone and Wainuiomata will both be hoping to kick-start their second rounds at the Petone Rec at 1.15 pm.

In the second round of the Women’s Victoria Tavern Trophy on Saturday the three winners from last week play the three losers from last week.

First round champions and winners from last week Norths play Avalon at Fraser Park, first round winners OBU and Wainuiomata meet at Newlands Park and MSP-Poneke and Ories play at Kilbirnie Park. All games are at 11.30 am.

There are three Premier 1 First XV matches on Saturday as part of the fourth round. Scots College can join St Pat’s Silverstream at the top of the top of the table if they defeat winless Porirua College.

With one win from three so far, both St Pat’s Town and Naenae College will be eager to keep in touch of the semi-finals race when they clash, as can Rongotai against winless HIBS.

Petone won the first round JDR Cup Senior 3 competition last week, finishing the first round on 34 points and just ahead of the two HOBM teams the Barbarians and the Originals on 32.

The second round Senior 3 Johnsonville Centennium Cup starts this Saturday, with Petone and the HOBM Originals clashing on the Hutt Rec 2 at 1.15 pm. Other Senior 3 matches this week are between Rimutaka and Wellington, MSP and Ories and Upper Hutt and Tawa. The HOBM Barbarians have the bye.

The U85kg division 1 title will be decided at Te Whaea on Saturday at 3.00 pm between the MSP Blues and the Tawa Titans.Heading into this final match of the first round, MSP and Tawa are both unbeaten. MSP have scored 417 points and conceded just 5, while Tawa have put on 247 and let in 49.

MSP (on 40 points) just need to beat Tawa (39) to claim the title. The next best team is Eastbourne (27), followed by the Onslow-OBU Bunnies (18).

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