Rugby to stay tight in third round as winter bites

Above: Winter rugby. Tough conditions are expected to keep games tight around Wellington this weekend.

Midwinter rugby hits Wellington this weekend but it won't dampen the enthusiasm of players and supporters alike as the business end of the 2013 club season draws nearer.

Following last night's southerly storm conditions will be tough, but the rugby promises to remain exciting. With a month of the regular season remaining after Saturday the third round of the Jubilee and Hardham Cups is a key one for those teams yet to register a win in the opening fortnight.

After two rounds of the Jubilee Cup, winless trio Wainuiomata, Marist St Pat's and Petone are just about in must-win territory already if they want to advance to the semi-finals at the end of July. The statistics are against these three teams; in the last 12 straight Jubilee Cups, 2001-2012, no team has lost both its first two matches and gone on to reach the final.

It's a similar story in the Hardham Cup, with winless Wests, Avalon and Rimutaka all needing victories or both their playoff and promotion-relegation hopes could be on thin ice.

With so much at stake already, the key matches this weekend are those involving these teams.

There's a top-of-the-table Jubilee Cup match encounter at the Polo Ground between Oriental-Rongotai and Tawa, but there's more on the other three matches between Marist St Pat's and Poneke at Evans Bay Park, Petone and HOBM at the Petone Rec and Wainuiomata and Old Boys University at William Jones Park.

Similarly, in the Hardham Cup the main clash of the round is at Fraser Park between Avalon and the Wests Roosters, closely followed by the scheduled encounter at Hataitai Park between Wellington and Johnsonville - with the blowtorch on Johnsonville's camp not Wellington's.

There's also plenty of rugby for fans to follow in the lower and college grades and in the women's division that is holding its Gala Day at Te Whaea.

The Premier 1 top-of-the-table First XV clash at Scots College between the home team and St Pat's Silverstream is the pick of these matches. Both are unbeaten after four rounds and the winner will probably go on to qualify in pole position for the semi-finals. This match is also being carried by Sky Television.

The sound of bagpipes at Scots College will be replaced by the sound of thunder at the Polo Ground when two of the Jubilee Cup heavyweights Ories and Tawa clash.

The winner of this match can just about book their semi-final position with a month to spare, while the loser will be reined by the chasers. Both these sides have been tested severely in the first two weeks and come through unbeaten. Tawa beaten Wainuiomata 28-20 and Petone 55-14, while Ories' wins have been over Petone 21-16 and Poneke 23-16. In the first round Tawa beat Ories 33-23 at Lyndhurst Park in round 8. This re-match will go the distance.

Only the foolhardy would write off the semi-final claims of both MSP and Poneke at this stage. Both clubs are bristling with Jubilee Cup pedigree and both their histories over the past two-three decades are stacked with examples of them picking themselves up from this sort of position.

Defending champions MSP will be hoping to make the most of home ground advantage after playing their first two matches away at the Hutt Rec and Nairnville Park. While a win over their closest rivals would kick-start their campaign, defeat would in all likelihood place them two wins off the playoff zone and severely dent their playoff hopes. Poneke are also winless, although are marginally less desperate having drawn against OBU and lost with a bonus point against Ories. MSP held on to beat an ill-disciplined Poneke 27-24 when they met in the first round for the Horan-Millar Trophy.

In the two matches in the Hutt Valley home sides Petone and Wainuiomata will also need to make the most of home ground advantage.

At the Village, Petone host their great rivals HOBM in a match between winless Petone and unbeaten HOBM who could go to the top of the table on their own after three rounds depending on what happens between Ories and Tawa. Petone are desperate having lost their last four matches, last tasting success against MSP in round 9 of the first round. However, they could of beaten Ories in the first week (lost 16-21) if not for a horror show first 10 minutes and last week's defeat to their current nemesis Tawa (14-55) was the result of a blowout. Petone are also out to reverse their 22-50 loss to HOBM in the McBain Shield clash in the first round.

At William Jones Park, Wainuiomata need to be at OBU who, with the assistance of Hurricanes Chris Smylie and Tim Bateman in the halves, overran MSP 46-18 last weekend. Even without these two players, OBU are operating well and Wainuiomata will have to play well to beat them in their first home game of the round after defeats in the opening two rounds to Tawa (20-28) and HOBM (19-23). OBU beat Wainuiomata 45-13 in the first round, but the latter are a vastly improved side since that match over two months ago.

On an expected heavy track, this match could come down to just one or two plays. In their four home matches last year in the Jubilee Cup, Wainuiomata lost to Ories 6-11 and beat Tawa 10-5, Upper Hutt 13-10 and Norths 25-19.

In the Hardham Cup, the Wellington Axemen are the talk of the competition after the first two rounds after opening their account with wins over Rimutaka (38-9) and the Wests Roosters (21-11). These two wins for the Axemen have thrown the Hardham Cup into high gear, creating ripples in the Rimutaka, Roosters, Johnsonville and Avalon camps.

This Saturday the Axemen return home to Hataitai Park to host the Johnsonville Hawks in a significant clash for both clubs. Victory for the Axemen would probably be enough for them to make the semi-finals and possibly enough to earn promotion to the Swindale Shield next year pending other results. After coming away empty handed last Saturday against OBU B (11-25), defeat for Johnsonville would see them leapfrogged by either Avalon or Wests who meet in another massive Hardham Cup encounter this Saturday. Johnsonville beat Wellington 5-3 in their previous clash this year, in the opening round of the season.

Avalon and Wests, with two defeats, can either sink or swim this weekend. The victor at Fraser Park can live to fight another day, while the loser could be gone from playoff contention and possibly in the promotion-relegation race as well.

In the other two matches leaders Northern United and Upper Hutt will both ease out further and all but book their semi-final places with a month to spare if they win this weekend.

Norths host winless Rimutaka at Porirua Park, who must get at least a bonus point out of this clash or they will really be swimming against the tide throughout July.

Upper Hutt welcome OBU B on to Maidstone Park. OBU B are a sharp side after missing out to Norths 22-39 and then beating Johnsonville 25-11 and will prove a tough warm-up for Upper Hutt ahead of the likely defining clash of the Hardham Cup round-robin series next week between Upper Hutt and Norths.

In the Senior 1 Ed Chaney Cup, early frontrunners Ories host Tawa in the 1.15 pm game at the Polo Ground. Ories are a promoted side from the first round Senior 2 grade and Tawa were solid mid-table finishers from the first round Senior 1 grade.

Similarly, first round Senior 2 winners HOBM will be hoping for their third consecutive win of the second first round round Senior 1 mid-table finishers Petone in the Jubilee Cup curtain-raiser at the Petone Rec.

Elsewhere, Upper Hutt host Paremata-Plimmerton at Maidstone Park at 1.15 pm, Wainuiomata host Northern United at William Jones Park at 12.45 pm and MSP and Poneke clash in the Jubilee Cup curtain-raiser at Evans Bay Park at 1.15 pm.

In the Senior 2 HD Morgan Memorial Cup the two unbeaten teams so far, Avalon and Wests, clash in the 1.15 pm match at Fraser Park. Wests have earned two bonus point wins at home so far over Petone (29-16) and MSP (40-20), while Avalon have achieved victories over Johnsonville (15-10) and Norths (22-17).

In the other four Senior 2 fixtures, Wainuiomata and OBU square off at Mary Crowther Park at 1.15 pm, Petone and Stokes Valley meet at the Petone Rec at 1.15 pm, MSP and Johnsonville play at Kilbirnie Park 3 at 1.00 pm and Norths and Poneke clash at Porirua Park at 1.15 pm.

In round three Premier women's matches at Te Whaea, Norths and Ories play at 12.00 pm, Avalon and OBU meet at 2.00 pm and MSP-Poneke and Wainuiomata clash at 4.00 pm.

In round five Premier 1 First XV action, Scots College and St Pat's Silverstream do battle in the feature match at Scots College at 2.45 pm.

Third placed Wellington College (three wins from four) play sixth placed Naenae College (one win) at Naenae, fourth placed St Pat's Town and fifth placed Rongotai (both two wins) meet at Rongotai, HIBS and Porirua College (both winless) meet at the Police College.

Round two of the Senior 3 Johnsonville Centennium Cup includes first round Senior 3 winners Petone playing mid-table finishers Rimutaka and a clash between the HOBM Originals and Ories who finished third and fourth respectively in the first round and who were both bonus point winners in last week's opening second round set of matches.

Round three of the John E Kelly Cup U21 division sees a match-up between two unbeaten teams so far, Norths Blue and OBU Green. OBU Green won all seven games to win the first round U21 competition, while Norths have been fast out of the blocks in the second round after winning one from seven.