Last round humdinger in store for Jubilee and Hardham Cups

(Above): Tawa edged out MSP 20-10 last week. Will Tawa finish the round-robin on top and claim the Andy Leslie Trophy? Can defending champions MSP make the semi-finals?

It’s all on in the last week of the round-robin play in Premier competitions with something riding on every game.

Jubilee Cup

Three teams are certain of being in the semi-finals next week – Hutt Old Boys Marist, Tawa, and Old Boys-University – but who they’ll play and where is still uncertain.

Just as uncertain is who will fill the final playoff spot. Oriental-Rongotai currently hold that position but Poneke, MSP and even Wainuiomata could be there come fulltime on Saturday.

At Lyndhurst Park HOBM visits Tawa in a top-two clash and possible Jubilee Cup final preview just two weeks out from the big game. The winner will secure a home semi-final for the following week while the loser will nervously await the outcome of OBU’s match against Ories to see if they’re at home or away next weekend. What is known is that these two sides will be on opposite sides of the semi final draw.

Tawa come into the game on the back of slogging out a 20-10 win over MSP at Evans Bay, their first win over the Scarlets in 10 attempts dating back to 2006; while the Eagles suffered a setback and loss of momentum when beaten by Poneke 32-16 across the road at Kilbirnie Park when a win would have seen them have a home-semi wrapped up. The last two results between these teams are split; Tawa won this year’s Swindale match-up 23-17 while HOBM easily won last year’s Jubilee Cup game 31-13 with both games played on the Hutt Rec.

OBU will also be seeking a home semi-final, but to do so will have to account for Oriental-Rongotai at Nairnville Park. Even then it’s not quite that straight-forward, as if they are tied on competitions points with HOBM they lose the tiebreaker based on HOBM’s come-from-behind 37-22 win three weeks ago. In OBU’s favour though is their win over Tawa two weeks ago should those clubs tie on points. A loss however for the Goats will mean an away trip.

For Ories (15 points) the loss at home to Wainuiomata last week put them in this situation when a win would have sealed their place. It’s a simple equation for them; a win will put them into the semi’s, and depending on any bonus points for either team in this game that could be as third or fourth qualifier as they will hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over OBU. Lose or even draw and their fate will be in the hands of the matches featuring the three sides challenging them for that place.? The Swindale game was a 27-all draw at the Polo Ground, so this could be another nail-biter for all concerned.

For the three sides on the outside their chances rest on three things; their own game, hoping that Ories lose at Nairnville, and that the result in the other game goes their way as well. An Ories win will put a semi-final place beyond the reach of any of these teams.

MSP would appear to have the easier task hosting a winless Petone side at Evans Bay Park, while Poneke head over the hill road to face Wainuiomata at William Jones Park.

Wainuiomata’s (10 points) situation is the easiest to explain, needing to win with a bonus point and hope that Ories (with no bonus points) and MSP (with one or no bonus) both lose. Such as scenario would see them tied on 15 points with Ories, but would go through owing to their win over the Magpies last week.

Poneke (13 points) stayed in the hunt with their win over HOBM last week. Since they’ve lost to both Ories and MSP in the Jubilee Cup they need to finish with a higher competition points total than both of those teams in order to proceed. A win would take them take them to 17 points but would rely on both MSP losing and Ories not getting two points at least out of their game. Getting to 18 with a bonus point improves their chances and would get them in if MSP wins but without a bonus point, or Ories doesn’t get 3 points out their game, or both. Theoretically Poneke could still make it with a draw and a try-scoring bonus provided both Ories (with no bonus points) and MSP (with one or no bonus) lose, but this seems unlikely.

MSP’s fortunes rely on firstly winning and at least matching Poneke’s result, including any four-try bonus. A win would also take them to 17 points, but if Ories lose with two bonus points the two would be tied and since the match between the two was a 27-all draw it would come down to points differential. Like Poneke a bonus point improves their situation.

Just to add even more complications a pair of three-way ties are possible: If Ories, MSP and Wainuiomata are all tied on the same total it would be MSP who progress owing to their 1-win, 1-draw record in the head-to-head matches between the three. If Ories, MSP and Poneke are tied, then it would come down to the points differential for Ories and MSP because of the draw between the two and the fact they have both beaten Poneke in the round-robin.

Hardham Cup

The situation in the Hardham Cup is no less complicated.

Unbeaten Upper Hutt have already secured themselves a home-semi final by accounting for Johnsonville last week, while either Norths or Wellington will host the other depending on the outcome of their games this weekend.

As with the Jubilee Cup however, more than two teams are in the fight for that fourth spot with the added drama of promotion/relegation at stake for Johnsonville and Wests.

Starting in the top four, Upper Hutt (28 points) venture into the city to take on Wellington (22) at Hataitai Park. Despite being guaranteed a home semi Upper Hutt will want to keep their momentum going, while the Axemen will want to keep their 30-game long home unbeaten streak intact and the possibility of a home semi-final themselves if Johnsonville can tip up Norths.

That game between second-placed Norths (25) and fourth-placed Johnsonville (13) is on the Hawks turf at Helston Park. For the home side glory awaits in the shape of a semi-final berth and a return to Premier rugby if they pull off a win, while a loss would be a crushing end to a very bright season. Their disappointing loss to OBU B six weeks ago could yet haunt them. Norths will want to ensure that their semi-final is played at Porirua Park, and could yet finish top with a win and an Upper Hutt loss.

Wests (11) have the easier assignment, making the trip to Maoribank Park to face winless Rimutaka (1). The Roosters survived two late shots at goal by OBU B last week, which had just one gone over would have meant their 30-year status as a Premier club would be hanging by a thread, and had both done so it would have ended it entirely.

They would be favoured to win this week though, and realistically need a four-try bonus to make Johnsonville’s job that much harder. If it came down to it, Johnsonville’s 39-16 win in round 4 is the tiebreaker if the two teams are tied on points, in contrast to the situation in 2006 when the two teams were tied and Wests held the tiebreaker due to their earlier 27-26 win.

For Rimutaka it is the last game of a long and record-breaking season for all the wrong reasons. Breaking that duck with an upset win on Saturday would not only relegate Wests to Senior 1 status along with themselves, but would mean avoiding becoming the first Premier side to go winless for an entire season in many years.

The final game sees the third side in with a semi-final chance when OBU B host Avalon in the early game at Nairnville Park. The visitors will be buoyed after winning their first game of the Hardham Cup round after handily beating Rimutaka at home 41-14 last week and will fancy their chances of reversing the 33-26 loss from the Harper Lock Shield game earlier in the season.

The Goats second-side may consider themselves unlucky not to have at least gotten a draw out of last week, and to now make the semi-finals they must win and hope the other results go their way. If they find themselves in a two-way points for fourth with Wests last week’s result will see them miss out, whereas the same situation with Johnsonville will see them through having won the encounter between the two earlier on.

Three-way ties are also a possibility here too. If Johnsonville, Wests and OBU; or Johnsonville, OBU and Avalon (who are mathematically still alive), all finish tied on points it will come down to points difference due to the who-beat-who; while a Johnsonville/Wests/Avalon tie results in Johnsonville coming out on top. It is also possible for all four sides to finish on 13 points, and in that instance Johnsonville would also be the side to progress as firstly OBU B will dip out as only having one win against the other three sides, and Johnsonville having beaten the other two sides.

No matter what takes place on the field this Saturday, there will be plenty of people following radio, Twitter, text messages and phone calls trying to keep up-to-date with all the goings on in both Premier competitions.